Weekly Trades (16)

A four consecutive red days + yesterday’s close below 100$ all indicate that a possible bounce of the low doesn’t have to be so persuasive as it looks according to the Friday’s daily candle. If you’d look carefully at the chart you can’t find more than two consecutive red days from the start of this rally in December/January. Also the 60% retracement level from the top has been breached, that most traders consider to be a last barrier for corrections in trending markets.

Now the real trading can start. It is not hard to book some good profits, when the market is increasing by dozens of percent day by day. Every monkey trained in pushing a right buy and sell button can be profitable in those conditions.

So what to expect in the following days? I’m still a long-term bull, not so much in the short-term outlook. No market however strong fundamentally can grow exponentially forever. A steep up move is followed by a periods of consolidation or a sudden and big falls. BTC/USD has experienced strong increases since January that resulted into the sudden fall last week. Now it could have to be a time for some rest.

A brief review of the last week trades:
Buy TP1= 22%
Buy TP2= 35%
Buy TP3= 70%

If you’d taken the sell trades, they would be profitable also:
Sell TP1= 1,5%
Sell TP2= 5%

Here are the trading points for the coming week (based on the Bitstamp data):
Buy: 100.20 SL: 94.80 TP1:111.70 TP2:118.70 TP3: 133.20
Sell: 89.80 SL: 95.00 TP1:85.20 TP2: 70.00 TP3: 51.00

My personal bias is down, but let the market decide the direction. Do not forget, trading is not about foreseeing the future price, but to be prepared and react on what the market is offering to you. Respect it.

Weekly trades

What a fool’s day today, was it? The USD/BTC price climbed more than 10% from the open. Wow. And this should only be a precursor of what we can expect in following weeks.
As regards this week trading, I regret now didn’t put up a points yesterday. I just thought of today as a quiet holiday break not realising banking in Japan not been affected. And of course as at the start of every week Mt.Gox opening and processing of a new accounts and buying orders reflected in an immediate price increase.
That is why I think the major move of this week is over, but it doesn’t mean there aren’t going some opportunities appear. Here is what can I see now:
Buy: 106.05   Stop loss: 103.00     Profit take: 110.00 or when you satisfy your greed.
Sell: Not a slightest reason to sell at or near the current level.
92.18    SL: 95.00    PT: 91.20;    87.20;
Now, prefer to buy of course, but as mentioned above, I don’t like catching up a running train. It means this point can work  the 2nd or 3rd time after some stop loss hits (though the stops are big enough, are they?) .
I would also like to see a correction down to 95-97 USD and then a bounce up. But as you know one’s wishes and assumptions are completely meaningless in any market:)