$100 Holds. For Now. Weekly Trades (31)

A hot summer days use to be boring for trading. The BTC/USD pair has oscillated between $ 85-100 for the last two weeks. That means the market is still in the downtrend technically, though current price action doesn’t imply we will see any powerful sell-off in the near future. As stated in the last post, $100 level is a border line separating current downtrend from expected (coming sooner or later) uptrend.

Trading points (Bitstamp chart) for the coming week:
Buy point:  Now or above 93.00   SL: 88.00    TP: 99.00; 105.00
Sell point:  87.70   SL: 92.00    TP: 85.30;  83.00

Still in Downtrend, $100 The Key. Weekly Trades (29)

We had some nice move last week, although not according to my anticipated direction. But as you can see, the trigger (buy, sell) entry points are working well and realizing profits (closing position) is always more of a personal thing.
So how does the bigger picture looks right now looking at the Mt.Gox chart? (Btw, what the fuck is with the Bitstamp stream?) Nothing has changed and the market is still in a bear condition, though it has risen a lot in recent days. But look at the Friday’s daily candle with that long upper shadow. That is a clear sell signal especially when you consider it to happen at the important $100 resistance zone. But it must still have  to be confirmed by the price selling off below $88. First attempt yesterday wasn’t successful, but I think it will pass through finally. Of course this sell signal would become invalidated when the price breaks above $105.
With that in mind let’s write down the attack plan for the coming week:

Sell point: 94.00  (SL:100.00)   PT: 89.00; 86.00; 82.00
Buy point: 100.00  (SL: 94.00)   PT: 110.00;  115.00

Bitcoin Bears In Charge Clearly. Weekly Trades (28)

After a calm comes a storm and vice-versa. The price of BTC/USD pair oscillated around the $100 zone for three weeks and it was quite hard to book some decent profit with this weekly strategy.

As with all other tradable instruments, at these times the most important is to preserve your capital, do not lose much and wait for a next big move. And the one came last week.

Is that down move finished now? I don’t know. But I doubt it. The speed and volume of the sell-off would suggest even lower levels are on the way soon. The current down leg should attack $50 zone first before any possible bounce off or continuing sell-off.

Bitcoin Trading Plan

With that said let’s lay out this week’s trading plan (Bitstamp chart):

Sell point: 63.00    SL: 70.00   Profit target: 53.00
Buy point:  73.00    SL: 68.00   Profit targets: 79.00, 82.00

My bias is still down, so I don’t want to open a long position before the market attacks $50 zone first.

Still Shorting. Weekly Trades (27)

All right. Let’s get back to work! Again, nothing much has changed since a few weeks ago, except the fact price break below $100 is now confirmed as well as the downtrend.
That’s why my bias is still down. Sellpoint for this week (Bitstamp): 87.5 with stop-loss at 90.50. Potential profit target around 80.00. If you want to buy then do so when the price break above 90.50 with 87.5 stoploss. Profit target 96.

Staying Short. Weekly Trades (25)

Nothing much has happened since last post. As I supposed the market is clearly inclined to go down though the move is still very slow and choppy. Considering the market is in its resting period it’s not so bad after all.

The price sits exactly at the $100 level and every bounce attempt ends up with a sell-off. That means we should expect decisive break down in the following hours/days. But again it doesn’t have to be smooth and fast. If you are not in a short position yet sell below 97.40 (Mt.Gox) with SL 104. As last week I am not interested in going long at this phase and think market will touch the $80 level (or close to) before any substantial up-move.