Tag: Buy point

Bitcoin Price At 2013 High. Weekly Trades (2)

Happy and profitable new year folks and let’s get straight back to work! The USD remains strong across the board and the BTC/USD pair is not an exception. The USD index can attack 100 very easily, probably 110 and 115 maybe.

Unless this resistance level is reached followed by appropriate price action (meaning clear selling) I have no reason to be bullish on BTC or any other asset traded against the dollar. And that could occur in a weeks, months… Of course until some sudden event happens that could send the mother of all fiat currencies back down to trash where it belongs.

The price has reached the $260 support zone (former resistance and maximum high of April 2013. Wow, do you remember those days? Only some 20 months ago and it does sound like a looong history) that can be broken fairly easily.

Down there lies stronger resistance at about $160 that should successfuly face of any selling attack at least on a longterm timeframe charts. But if the USD index breaks above 120 only bitcoin god knows what will happen then…

Sell:  264      Stop-loss: 290    Profit Take: 254; 234; 224
Buy: 291            SL: 276                PT: 300; 310

Bitcoin Bears In Charge Clearly. Weekly Trades (28)

After a calm comes a storm and vice-versa. The price of BTC/USD pair oscillated around the $100 zone for three weeks and it was quite hard to book some decent profit with this weekly strategy.

As with all other tradable instruments, at these times the most important is to preserve your capital, do not lose much and wait for a next big move. And the one came last week.

Is that down move finished now? I don’t know. But I doubt it. The speed and volume of the sell-off would suggest even lower levels are on the way soon. The current down leg should attack $50 zone first before any possible bounce off or continuing sell-off.

Bitcoin Trading Plan

With that said let’s lay out this week’s trading plan (Bitstamp chart):

Sell point: 63.00    SL: 70.00   Profit target: 53.00
Buy point:  73.00    SL: 68.00   Profit targets: 79.00, 82.00

My bias is still down, so I don’t want to open a long position before the market attacks $50 zone first.

Seeeellll! Nooowww! Weekly trades (23)

What a bloody choppy week that was! My assumption on a price rising didn’t come true and it seems the $130 level is at least as important barrier as the $120 (based on the bitstampUSD chart). The only bright side of a low volatility period is that a nice moves come after that. Maybe such a one just started out today. After two failed breaks through $130 there are strong odds the price will come down (well, it has come down nicely already, but there’s more potential).

Some more supportive factors: 1. The bullish structure with the base point above 120 was destroyed today    2. The significant turning point at $119 is about to be broken (well, it was, but just a spikes, it needs to hold below).
A clear breaking of the $119 strenghtens downward pressure and the price can attack $110 or $100 very quickly.

So with that in mind the coming week’s points are very easy to setup:
Sell immediately or anywhere up to $128. That level is the stop-loss also. The price action should get some steam below $119 and tank down to $110 at least, maybe $106 or $103.
There is no reason even to think about the buy now unless the price gets clearly above 130. In that case the stop-loss is at $127 and profit target at $140. But I really doubt BTC will get there this week.

Buuuyyy! Weekly Trades (22)

OK, I must admit it. Bitcoin keeps surprising me as a trader. The last time I wrote here about having a pause in BTC/USD trading (as would have traded it for years, yeah? 🙂 ) and expecting some weeks or months of low volatility practically disabling profitable trading. It looks like I was wrong. Yes, the volatility has decreased comparing to the crazy weeks before, but it is still possible to book some good pips in.

So what’s the current story? Looking at the Bitstamp USD chart the price has recently broken an important turning point at $120 and heading to another at $150. So this can be the target in the next days maybe weeks depending on the upmove strength. As this climb isn’t very much persuasive for me it is necessary to look carefully downstairs also. And there is strong trendline support now around $100. But for the market to attack this level I don’t know what kind of serious event would have to occur for it to come down there. Especially when you consider the recent Dwolla/Mt.Gox problem, that was quite a huge negative story and the price is up. That is telling me something. And maybe BTC just doesn’t give a fuck of this (or any) “news”.

OK, when you haven’t bought in the recent hours then do it as soon as possible. As said above my buy target (PT2) is $150, but first it should cut through $140 (PT1). The stop-loss set up at $127.50. And that is also the sell-point with the stop-loss at $130.50. If triggered my first profit target is $124 and the second at $123 (let’s be careful here, the trend is up). Good luck!

Weekly Trades (19)

An overall situation in the BTCUSD market is a quite tricky right now. It is a long term range trading between a high of 260 USD and low at 50 USD. The price broke down into a medium-term bear market last week, but weekend recovery suggests we can see some small up move again before another downfall leg later. You know that saying ‘what can’t go up must come down’…

Here are my points for this week:

Buy   119.40   SL 114.00    PT1: 124.80  PT2: 135.00   PT3: 146.00
Sell  106.70   SL 115.30    PT1: 93.00   PT2:  81.00   PT3: 71.00  PT4: 60.00

 

Summing up the last week trading results: +22%

Buy PT1: +5%
Sell PT1: +4%, PT2: +12%,  PT3: +17%

If you let a profit run with the falling market and would close on Friday afternoon (which I would recommend for at latest), you could book even 33% return (supposing 85 USD target for example) only for that one sell off.
Also bear in mind that buy and sell points I give out must be clearly broken on the chart, a spike candle (I watch 15 min. or 200 tick chart for an entry) is not enough, market has to clearly close above (below) this point. That’s why setting up a pending orders and leave computer is comfortable, but not always leading to a successful entry.