Bitcoin - BITCOIN PIT

Cheaper Bitcoins Ahead? Weekly Trades (14)

No matter how much you wish the price of bitcoin to appreciate as a trader you have to respect the market. And Mr. Market is in selling mode right now. How much can bitcoin fall?

It looks like very important support zone of $380-400 could be reached within a few couple of hours. If this level capitulates, the bulls will be in a real trouble and much cheaper bitcoins lie ahead of us.

Sell: now or below 435 Stop-loss: 470 Take Profit: 405; 385; 340
Buy: 535 SL: 500 Take Profit: 580

Record Bitcoin Price In Sight. Weekly Trades (44)

Bitcoin has been on fire lately, let’s hope this highly volatile time will last a few more days, weeks… I expect price attacking the historical maximum soon, but am prepared also to go short without any hesitation if the sell point is to be triggered.

Sell: 179.50 SL: 185 PT: 170; 160
Buy: 195 SL: 192 PT: 204; 220; 250

Bitcoin Bears In Charge Clearly. Weekly Trades (28)

After a calm comes a storm and vice-versa. The price of BTC/USD pair oscillated around the $100 zone for three weeks and it was quite hard to book some decent profit with this weekly strategy.

As with all other tradable instruments, at these times the most important is to preserve your capital, do not lose much and wait for a next big move. And the one came last week.

Is that down move finished now? I don’t know. But I doubt it. The speed and volume of the sell-off would suggest even lower levels are on the way soon. The current down leg should attack $50 zone first before any possible bounce off or continuing sell-off.

Bitcoin Trading Plan

With that said let’s lay out this week’s trading plan (Bitstamp chart):

Sell point: 63.00 SL: 70.00 Profit target: 53.00
Buy point: 73.00 SL: 68.00 Profit targets: 79.00, 82.00

My bias is still down, so I don’t want to open a long position before the market attacks $50 zone first.

Buuuyyy! Weekly Trades (22)

OK, I must admit it. Bitcoin keeps surprising me as a trader. The last time I wrote here about having a pause in BTC/USD trading (as would have traded it for years, yeah? 🙂 ) and expecting some weeks or months of low volatility practically disabling profitable trading. It looks like I was wrong. Yes, the volatility has decreased comparing to the crazy weeks before, but it is still possible to book some good pips in.

So what’s the current story? Looking at the Bitstamp USD chart the price has recently broken an important turning point at $120 and heading to another at $150. So this can be the target in the next days maybe weeks depending on the upmove strength. As this climb isn’t very much persuasive for me it is necessary to look carefully downstairs also. And there is strong trendline support now around $100. But for the market to attack this level I don’t know what kind of serious event would have to occur for it to come down there. Especially when you consider the recent Dwolla/Mt.Gox problem, that was quite a huge negative story and the price is up. That is telling me something. And maybe BTC just doesn’t give a fuck of this (or any) “news”.

OK, when you haven’t bought in the recent hours then do it as soon as possible. As said above my buy target (PT2) is $150, but first it should cut through $140 (PT1). The stop-loss set up at $127.50. And that is also the sell-point with the stop-loss at $130.50. If triggered my first profit target is $124 and the second at $123 (let’s be careful here, the trend is up). Good luck!

Is Bitcoin Volatility Dead For The Moment?

I don’t want to be a fortuneteller, but it seems the BTC/USD price is dead for trading at the moment. The low volatility is one of trader’s biggest enemies, because market sits sticking up to a level and not moving clearly in any direction. When you are a short-term trader that means shutting down the chart, maybe PC and doing something more useful where you don’t lose money.

It’s hard to tell for how long the market can stay in this terrible condition (Well, not for merchants. Here you go, you ‘…but BTC is too volatile’ moaners), but Bitcoin and its participants has clearly found a new equilibrium after the super ultra volatile period in recent weeks. That’s how every market works. A calm time follows a volatile period. The longer the pause moment lasts the steeper next move will be. But no one knows when that next phase will come.

Looking at the historical price chart the market seems to be in a similar state as after the abrupt peak of 2011 when a downward correction lasted for a half a year followed by a year-long consolidation period before another leg up. I don’t say it should be the same this time. Not at all. As the recent rise wasn’t so steep as two years ago, I think there won’t be such a down-pressure and we may just see the price oscillating around 100 USD. And then one day starting to accelerate towards 1000 USD. When that day will come I dont know. But will watch out and be ready.