Buy: 410 SL: 405 PT: 420; 425; 430
Sell: 405 Stop-loss: 408 Profit Take: 395; 390; 385
Trading fiat scamcoins?
buy Usd/Jpy, Gbp/Jpy. Warning: After a correction Jpy might get stronger again.
Indices
DAX: Downtrend though a pullback might be in the cards
DJ: Bullish
Nikkei: Also possible buying pullback in downtrend (as it happened during night it might sell-off again)
Pozícia Deutsche Bank je vraj pevná ako skala. No to isté sa vravelo o Dexii, AIG, Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns… Všetky banky fungujú v systéme frakčných rezerv a preto sú už niekoľko rokov na pokraji krachu, nad ktorým ich držia iba centrálne banky. Súčasný preúverovaný a prepákovaný finančný systém je iba ilúzia vlečúca sa zotrvačnosťou, ktorá sa pri menšom poryve protivetra zrúca ako domček z kariet.
Otázka je, čo establišment zamýšľa s DB. Ak banka skrachuje, nastane totálny chaos a ohrozený bude celý finančný systém. ECB by musela niečo natlačiť a vykryť straty pre ostatné banky. Euro by sa ešte pár rokov potácalo hlboko pod dolárom.
Druhá možnosť: DB to “prežije” vďaka pomoci ECB alebo inej tropísmenkovej inštitúcie. Nastane hyperinflácia, príde reset a euro nahradí dolár alebo nejaká forma digitálnej fiat meny. Ľudia s úsporami prídu o všetko. Ak tie úspory neboli vo forme nehnuteľnosti, drahých kovov alebo Bitcoinu.
Neistota vo svete peňazí stúpa každým dňom a novým dnom ceny akcií bánk. Desaťročia bolo ľuďom vtĺkané do hláv, že akcie môžu ísť iba smerom nahor. Že peniaze uložené v banke sú ich a v bezpečí. Že výnosy na štátnych dlhopisoch síce nie sú vysoké, no sú tým najbezpečnejším prístavom. Že zlato alebo striebro ako peniaze a poistka proti inflácií sú mŕtve. Že Bitcoin je príliš volatilný ako uchovávateľ hodnoty. Že je lepšie zveriť peniaze niekomu inému a dúfať, že ak ich aj nezhodnotí, aspoň neznehodnotí.
Nič z toho nie je pravda. Od začiatku roka zaznamenávajú všetky akciové trhy mínusové čísla, ceny niektorých bánk sa ocitli dokonca pod úrovňou roku 2008. Vaše peniaze v banke nie sú v skutočnosti vaše. Stačí sa opýtať Grékov, Cyperčanov… Vlastne stačí, keď prídete do banky alebo bankomatu a chcete vybrať väčšiu čiastku. Za to, že štátu požičiate peniaze, ešte musíte platiť úrok. Tak vám treba, ak tak robíte. O chvíľu tento úrok budú vyberať aj banky za “vaše” uložené peniaze. Tak vám treba, ak im to dovolíte.
Vzácne kovy môžu hrať nejakú dobu “mŕtveho chrobáka”, no nakoniec, aj napriek nevôli establišmentu, zohľadnia množstvo natlačených papierikov v ekonomike. S padajúcimi akciami sa cena zlata od začiatku roka zvýšila o vyše 100 Usd/uncu. Hoci cena Bitcoinu klesla oproti koncu roka, už tretí týždeň sa drží v tesnom rozpätí a volatilita je prakticky na minime, na rozdiel od fiat mien alebo akcií.
Ak vaše peniaze zverené nejakému “osvedčenému” bankovému fondu zarábajú, zrejme ste jeden z mála šťastlivcov. Spravidla totiž tieto produkty investujú najmä do tradičných akcií a dlhopisov. Ak nechcete riskovať, ale iba uložiť úspory na bezpečné miesto, banku nehľadajte z dôvodov spomenutých vyššie. Vyvstáva teda otázka kam s peniazmi? Mám pre vás nepríjemnú správu. Musíte sa naučiť starať sa o ne sami. “Akože ja mám byť bankou?” Áno, presne tak to myslím. Bitcoin to elegantne umožňuje. Iba vy rozhodujete, či, kam, za akých podmienok a koľko peňazí pošlete alebo radšej bezpečne uschováte. Hádam netreba podotýkať, že to všetko takmer zadarmo. Takmer, pretože vyžaduje vaše úsilie.
You know those moments you have opened short position because there is no other way market can go and after several weeks of stand-off you are nerved out and tired of choppy market so you finally close it at break-even just to see the price crash down another day with your planned profit hit in a few minutes after the break?
Well, that happens sometimes. And also closing the trade with huge loss (if not the margin call) happens in these cases when the trend reverses. That’s why it’s good to use stop-losses (physical or mental).
China New Year’s holiday is here and many traders expect fervently whether the PBOC will make its devaluation move during these days. Either way the price action looks bearish and I can’t see any reason for opening any substantial longs. However I wouldn’t be surprised first to see some buying shots during the week and Friday/Saturday/Sunday some massive sell-out
as has often been the case.
Buy: 378 Stop-loss: 373 Take Profit: 388; 392; 398
Sell: 369 SL: 374 TP: 359; 349; 335
Trading forex scamcoins?
Strong: really hard to pick even mildly strong:) Maybe Jpy, Gbp
Weak: Aud, Cad
Indices:
DAX: still in the choppy zone, looks more bearish now and about to see 9000.
DJ: choppy, the least bearish of all 3 indexes followed here.
Nikkei: bearish below magic number 16666, bullish above.
Whenever some global institution publishes a report immediately before an important political/bank/business meeting you can be sure of that well-being of common people is at stake. So first there was the IMF report “Virtual Currencies and Beyond,” where the wannabe regulators indicated the steps needed to be taken for binding Bitcoin.
They stated among other things: “Regulatory responses should be commensurate to the risks without stifling innovation. In this context, an outright ban may, in some cases, be unduly blunt while a more targeted approach (for example, regulating VC intermediaries) may be preferred.
For example, in the absence of central authority in a cryptocurrency scheme that would normally be the subject of regulation, regulators need to focus on other VC market participants. Some countries are presently focusing on the “gatekeepers” (for example, VC exchanges) that serve as the bridge between a VC scheme and broader economy but this approach may need to be reconsidered if the VC market expands. In particular, other VC market participants that operate entirely within the network (for example, VC wallet providers) may eventually need to come under the regulatory framework.”
A few days after the report had been published the annual World Economic Forum has taken place in Davos with Bitcoin being high on agenda and the IMF’s director Christine Lagarde presenting the report to the world “elites”. Only few days had passed and the European Parliament Committee held the meeting on “virtual currencies”. With the exception of several speeches it was more a demonstration of ignorance than something else. Just a non-binding chitchat actually.
The real meat came only two days ago as the European Commission “proposes to bring virtual currency exchange platforms under the scope of the Anti-Money Laundering Directive, so that these platforms have to apply customer due-diligence controls when exchanging virtual for real currencies, ending the anonymity associated with such exchanges.“
Ok, not so bad, you might say. Most of the exchanges have been spying and reporting on their fiat customers anyway, so what’s the deal? The point is that’s not yet all damage to be done. As EDCAB revealed, the EC plans to go beyond bringing exchanges under the 4th Anti-Money Laundering Directive and intends … applying the licensing and supervision rules of the Payment Services Directive …to virtual currency [exchanges and …] “wallet providers”.
After the directives will be enacted somewhen during the next months, the law can be effective since 2017 probably only after harmonization by the EU states. Now the question is: Will the whole EU become another NewYork’s BitLicense territory?
Sell: now or up to $380. Take Profit: 350; 335; 315
Buy:380 SL: 375 TP: 385; 390
The BTC/USD price downtrend was confirmed last week with the Thursday daily candle sell signal after several days of consolidation. And although the Friday’s candle formed a doji suggesting some buying pull-back, this scenario looks off the table currently as the price keeps pushing down.
A nice downtrend channel has formed there with some minor support/resistance in the middle (now somewhere around $350). If broken we can see a brief spike to $310 very soon.
Trading fiat scamcoins?
Strong: Usd, Cad
Weak: Jpy, Eur
Indices
DAX: choppy zone, somewhat bullish
DJ: bullish